ISSUES WITH PLAIN PACKAGING - NO EVIDENCE
Plain packaging will not reduce smoking rates
Studies have failed to show that having all legitimate cigarettes sold in plain packs will reduce overall tobacco consumption.
This point has been acknowledged in various official documents in Australia, Canada and the UK.
For instance, the UK Department of Health document describes the impact of plain packaging on total tobacco consumption as "speculative".
In 1994, the Standing Committee on Health of the Canadian Parliament heard presentations on four studies cited in support of and against plain packaging, and found that these studies did not show evidence that plain packaging will reduce tobacco consumption:
Flawed studies
Witnesses were in agreement that these four studies did not directly measure the effectiveness of plain packaging in reducing tobacco consumption. In all cases, plain packaging was created specifically for research purpose, in order to assess attitudes towards it. ...
... none of these studies showed in any significant way that plain packaging could either reduce or stop tobacco consumption or prevent young people from smoking.
What is more, according to various experts, some studies contain marked methodological flaws, others examine only one aspect of the issue, and one group of researchers literally exceeded the ethical limits acceptable in public health research." (emphasis added)
Source: Report of the Standing Committee on Health Towards Zero Consumption, Generic packaging of tobacco products, June 1994, page 12 and 50
Expert opinions
Economists from consultancy firm LECG
reviewed the five empirical research-based generic packaging studies cited in the 2008 UK DOH Consultation, five additional widely cited studies, several of which were used in generic packaging proposals in Australia, New Zealand and Canada, as well as three recent studies on cigarette package design.They concluded that none of these empirical papers reviewed provides evidence that can be used to evaluate whether imposing plain packaging would be an effective method to decrease youth smoking uptake.
(For details, go to
LECG Literature Review on generic packaging.pdf)
In 1995, the Canadian Government commissioned an Experts Panel to evaluate the possible impact of plain packaging of tobacco products. In the national survey of teens at the heart of the Panel study, most respondents said that plain packaging will not reduce consumption or increase cessation among youth smokers:
Driving consumption towards low price products
Plain packaging for cigarettes will inevitably lead to increased price competition which in turn will lead to increased low price cigarettes. Plain packaging will also facilitate the market entry of generic, low-priced tobacco products. These consequences bear the substantial risk of actually leading to increased consumption of tobacco products.
Also, in other consumer goods industries, many commodities are often sold without branding, for instance, staple food, frozen meat, and gasoline, to only name a few. There is no suggestion that consumers purchase less of these commodities when they are unbranded; but they are, of course, more sensitive to price.
Retailers' concerns
During the UK Department of Health consultation and the Australia National Preventative Health Taskforce consultations, the retail sector also expressed concern about the absence of evidence on the public health benefits of plain packaging.
Coles (Supermarket chain, Australia)
No evidence
Coles... questions the proposed effectiveness of plain packaging given that (i) most states have limited (if any) point of sale displays of tobacco products; and (ii) that tobacco packs under the proposed plan would have health warnings on 90% of the front and 100% of the back of the pack. We are also unaware of any evidence that shows plain packaging delivers public health benefits."
Source: Coles Supermarket submission to Australia NPHT consultation, January 2009, page 6
National Federation of Retail Newsagents (NFRN, UK)
Unsubstantiated
... In section 3.75 the consultation document refers to plain packaging and that the research evidence into this initiative is speculative
We note worryingly that throughout the consultation document the use of qualifying terms such as "could", "might" and "may" is extremely high. This shows a low level of confidence in the proposals and we cannot support any policy initiatives that are not based on robust research and a level of confidence as to the results." (emphasis added)
Source: UK NFRN submission to UK DOH consultation, August 2008, page 15